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Evidence Builds For Painful Housing Recession

Sentiment about the housing market is worse now than it was in the 1980s. That’s not good news, and it seems to be getting worse. Inventory levels are falling, mortgage rates are rising, and people seem to think things will continue to get worse before they get better. How bad could things really get?

Falling Consumer Sentiment

According to the University of Michigan, people currently feel more pessimistic about the housing market than they have since the early 1980s. The housing market crash in the early 1980s is somewhat reminiscent of today’s market. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) was dramatically raising interest rates to fight inflation, which sounds familiar, right? Even though rates were significantly higher than they are now, the crushing effect on the housing market was still eerily similar. Although rates dropped in the late 1980s, making mortgages more affordable for people, the Federal Reserve plans to raise them again. There are some positive signs inflation might be slowing down though. If this continues and leads to the Fed cutting rates, it could improve housing market conditions.

Early Days

Although there is some skepticism in regard to the housing market, we must remember that Zillow data shows that prices have still increased in all regions compared to last year. Even though a few regions are seeing monthly decreases, this is normal due to seasonal changes and many regions’ prices remain steady. In fact, if you look at Zillow’s data from the past 3 months leading up to October, only California, Utah and Nevada have experienced any falls in price–and those Drops were not significant. If there is an impending housing collapse on the horizon, it has not begun just yet. Currently, there is a significant attitude difference when it comes to the housing market. If things play out according to how people feel, then the housing market might have some tough years ahead. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called the housing market “very overheated” in a recent speech.

Leading Indicators

Realtor.com provides excellent leading indicators for the housing market. Currently, we are seeing an increase in price discounts, listings ( which is almost back to pre-Covid levels), and time on the market; even though this last statistic is rising from depths it previously reached during the pandemic. While these metrics tend to point toward a weakening housing market, we haven’t seen the repercussions play out in regard to house prices just yet. Additionally, trying to decipher which is which - true weakness or seasonal trend - becomes more complicated as we move away from the summer months (which traditionally see greater activity in terms of selling).

Housing Affordability

Housing affordability, as monitored by the Atlanta Fed, is worsening. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given the recent surge in mortgage rates. Nevertheless, it’s another indication that the housing market may be about to weaken. Although there are some concerns about the housing market, it’s important to remember that prices have not increased dramatically. In fact, they’ve been quite subdued and remain affordable in most markets. While a recession might be on the horizon, we have yet to see evidence of it in housing prices. If the Federal Reserve were to cut rates sharply, though, it could improve the housing market as it did in the mid-1980s - but they’ve made no indication that they plan to do so. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he believes the U.S. housing market is “very overheated.”
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10 tips to sell your home for more money

Although it may be easier to sell your home in a seller’s market, you should still put effort into making your home look presentable and valuable to potential buyers. There are a few key steps you can take to increase the asking price of your home, from working with an experienced real estate agent to making simple renovations and improvements. By taking these measures, you will be able to sell your home for more money and in a shorter time frame. If you’re looking to increase the odds of selling your home and making top dollar, experts say utilizing these 10 tips will help separate you from the competition.

1. Find a trusted real estate agent

If you want to sell your home fast and for top dollar, working with an experienced real estate agent is key. According to the National Association of Realtors, in 2021 homes that were sold without the help of a professional agent had a median price of only $260,000. Whereas, homes that did have an agent sold at much higher rates, with a median price tag of $318,000. When choosing someone to represent you during this process, be sure interview multiple candidates so you can find someone alignment with who could make this experience as seamless as possible for all parties involved.

2. Invest in value-adding improvements

It’s tough to decide which home improvements are worth the money, but thankfully there is data to help make the decision easier. According to Remodeling magazine, garage door replacements have the highest ROI of any other project, averaging just under 94%. If you’re looking to invest in your home, consider upgrading your kitchen says Realtor Jade Lee-Duffy of TXR Homes in San Diego, California. “The heart of the home is the kitchen, and many buyers will judge a property by its kitchen,” she says. “While a complete overhaul of this space can run into the tens of thousands, a minor update is where you can gain the greatest return. Think about resurfacing cabinets, replacing countertops, a fresh coat of paint or updating the fixtures and hardware.” According to Katie Severance, a Realtor with Douglas Elliman in Palm Beach, Florida, renovating a bathroom is another smart investment. “Renovated kitchens and baths are the ‘money rooms’ — those that add the most value to a home,” she says.

3. Up your curb appeal

Curb appeal is important because it’s your chance to make a good first impression.“Make sure your front yard is free of debris, the bushes are pruned and the grass has been cut,” says Lee-Duffy. “Also, add some bright potted plants by the front door to make buyers feel welcome.” Severance says that some easy updates that can really help improve your home’s curb appeal include touching up the exterior paint, adding window flower boxes, and installing a new mailbox. “Adding rich-looking mulch around shrubs and trees can really bring out the charm,” she adds.

4. Get a pre-listing inspection

Another step to think about when you’re preparing to sell your home is getting a professional inspection. “You don’t want any unexpected surprises,” says Lee-Duffy. “It’s best to find out beforehand if there are any issues that you can fix before buyers find out on their own.” That would give them the advantage in negotiations for a lower price, or–in a worse case scenario–a way to back out of the deal. So it may be worth spending a few hundred dollars to put your mind at ease. There is, however, a downside to a pre-listing inspection. “Beware, because once a seller becomes aware of an existing defect and does not correct it prior to listing, they are obligated to disclose it to a buyer,” says Severance. “Defects that a buyer learns were known but not disclosed, prior to accepting an offer, can kill the deal.”

5. Highlight the positive with professional photos

Investing in professional photography can help increase your home’s resale value. “The majority of people search for properties online,” says Lee-Duffy. “If the photos pop, it can translate into a higher sales price — and sell faster, too.” There are some things you may want to keep to yourself when listing your home online. “I advise against photographing every square foot of the home,” says Severance. “The goal of photographs is not to give all the goodies away online; it’s to make a buyer want to see more — to whet their whistle enough to entice them to see it in person. If they don’t come see the house, they probably aren’t making an offer.”

6. Stage your home

Severance believes that two guidelines should be followed when staging a home: using less décor and maintaining a neutral color scheme. “It’s very important to capture buyers’ interest from the front door,” she says. “Pay extra attention to the entry hall and invest heavily in staging this part of the house. Repaint; place flowers; buy a new area rug, an impressive mirror or a dramatic piece of art.” Declutter your home to make it appear bigger and more open. This means removing large pieces of furniture, getting rid of visual distractions, and minimizing the number of appliances on counters. “And don’t forget to stage the deck or patio, because that is an extension of the house that can make a small home feel much larger than it is,” Severance adds. If you want to increase your home’s value by improving its staging, then you have two options: do it yourself or hire a professional. On average, hiring a pro will cost about $1,728.

7. Set the right asking price

If you want to sell your home, setting the right price is key. A fair asking price will result in more buyers scheduling a viewing. “Setting the price too high can be detrimental and prevent buyers from walking through your front door,” says Lee-Duffy. “If you want to be conservative, always price on the lower end to entice maximum buyer interest.” It can be tricky to find the sweet spot of pricing for profit yet not overpricing, but that is where an experienced agent’s expertise comes in handy. They will know your house’s true value and how much you could potentially make from the sale. “Good pricing requires the expertise to thread the needle,” says Severance. “List at a number that is lower than comparable properties, in order to draw attention to it, but not so low that you will be disappointed if you only get one offer right at list price.” If you can manage to interest enough buyers, you may be able to start a bidding war.

8. Remove personal items

“The goal of any showing is for the buyer to envision their own belongings in the space,” says Severance. Therefore, even though family photos and other mementos might seem like they don’t affect how much money your home sells for, they really do matter — especially if you’re still living in the house while trying to sell it. “Buyers are thinking of their own furniture, where it will go and how it will fit. It’s the house they came to see, not the items inside of it,” she says. If potential buyers are too busy focused on personal items in the space, then they won’t be able to see themselves living there and making an offer.

9. Be ready to move fast

By preparing in advance, you will be able to more quickly respond when your property is listed and offers start rolling in. “Fill out all the necessary documents, such as any seller disclosures, and have paperwork for recent repair work, home renovation costs and utility bills on-hand for any buyer requests that come in,” says Lee-Duffy. Sellers who are slow in reaction time or unresponsive can lose buyers, adds Severance. “If the buyer feels that they are not being dealt with fairly, they are very likely to walk away,” she says.

10. Use your head, not your heart

Lastly, try to see things clearly and without emotion — your home is now a product for sale, not just “home.” Be aware of what you would be willing to concede if buyers made requests. It’s not uncommon for visitors to ask for repairs or credits, but as the seller it’s easy to get offended. “It’s important to take emotion out of it and remember that the buyer usually doesn’t expect to get everything they ask for,” says Severance. “Take a closer look at which requests are valid and fair, and offer something. The cost to you is not in giving the concession — it’s the expense of losing the buyer, putting the property back on the market, starting all over again and getting a potentially lower offer.”

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